The "Southern Voter" is Looking for a Third Party Candidate for President.
The word is out that Giuliani has decided to seek the Republican nomination as the GOP candidate for President in ’08.
For those of you salivating at that prospect, let me assure you that Giuliani doesn’t stand “a prayer of a chance” of winning… period.
First... I have absolutely no doubt that he will lose the entire South. Every state. Without the South no candidate can win. No candidate should EVER WANT to win without the South. For should a presidential candidate win the office, without the South, his, or her, tenure would be pure hell for the four years, or eight years, he, or she, is in office.
As of this date, I see no front running candidate who can win the South in the primaries. It will be, decidedly, a choice between three lightweights… none of whom can win in a “head to head” race with a Democrat… except… Hillary Clinton.
Giuliani has some massive, insurmountable, problems working against him in the South. His positions on gun control, gay rights, … and… he is pro-abortion. Add to those three “career killers” the fact that he hails form the Northeast, and you have a formula for utter defeat.
John McCain is even worse. He insulted the South on his last campaign foray into South Carolina, and we have very, very, long memories. No need for an apology from McCain, it will not be accepted.
Newt has become too intellectual. We liked him as a bomb thrower. Plus, Newt is an artificial Southerner. A Pennsylvanian by birth, a Southerner only in as much as he had the good sense to move here many years ago (Or his parents did!) . But, Newt remains an outsider. He will get a smattering of support but not nearly enough to matter.
Southern voters are conservative. Both Democrats and Republicans are conservative in the South. Yes, there are degrees of conservatism and that’s where the delineation between Southern conservative Democrats and Southern conservative Republicans shows so well, IF you are experienced in Southern politics.
If, for instance, the Dems run those left wing candidates who support the loonies of the left wing blog community, the so-called “Netroots crowd”, they will surely go down in inglorious flames. In the South, they are looked upon as children, naughty children, at that. They will be ignored by Southerners… save for the knowing glances Southerners give each other… and the rolling of the eyes by conservative Democrats in the South. It will be a waste of time and money for the DNC to consider sending candidates of that stripe here, or supporting candidates, of that stripe, for a Congressional office representing a Southern state.
Oh, sure, a small number will win, or come close to winning, but that would be in states with large municipalities… like Georgia, (with Atlanta) or Florida, (with Miami and other large cities) or Louisiana (with New Orleans) or even Texas. But those same states will not help the Democrats elect a liberal president. It’s not going to happen.
So, the long and the short of it is… BOTH parties have a serious problem on their hands come November of 2008. Who, among them, will the South vote for???
At the moment, it looks as if the GOP is going to run McCain, a sure loser. If they do indeed, run him, it will signal the GOP expects Hillary to be the Democrat nominee. She is the only Democrat McCain can beat. Now, I’m not basing that opinion on polling results; I’m basing it on knowledge of the Southern voter.
These days, when a group of Southerners gather, and the topic of conversation turns to politics, one quickly learns that Southerners are expecting a third party candidate to emerge, soon, who will represent the hopes and desires of the Southern conservative voter… both Democrat and Republican.
Immigration is HUGE down here. Securing the border with Mexico IS BEYOND HUGE down here. The war is HUGE down here. National Security is HUGE down here.
A third party candidate who can run on a platform of sealing the Southern border, rounding up as many of the illegal aliens, already in the US, (as possible) and deporting them, insuring the security of the American people, winning the war in Iraq, and not retreating, (or… as our Democrat friends like to say “re-deploying” our troops), continuing the research and development of new and better missiles to intercept the enemies incoming missiles, aimed at America and her people, will get the Southern vote. There is no doubt about it.
So, you can see that both political parties are in serious trouble in the South.
2008 is closer than one might think. There is little time for the Democrats and Republicans to make the adjustments in their respective platforms the South demands. But, if a fresh candidate should appear with no attachment to either party, and none of the baggage the two major parties carry. He, or she, has an extremely good shot. One thing is for sure. That third party candidate would, indeed, decide the election.
Longstreet
I hate Hillary, Kerry, I can't stand (He conceeeded too soon, before Ohio could be investigated) But what if Edwards, of Obamam rans on a platform of securing the border, keeping foreign companies from running air traffic control and port security? What if they were in full support of the 2nd ammendment, would you cross party lines to vote for them? You don't (never will beable to) get a total package, reproductive rights or marriage rights, or our security (borders, ports, and air travel) as a nation.
ReplyDeleteI'm a Tar Heel. I know Edwards. He is as much stuck on himself, and self centered, as Hillary, or worse. I couldn't vote for the man if he was a registered conservative Republican. Remember, he, and Gore, lost NC last time around. It seems the only Tar Heels who voted for him were the lawyers, and a few who didn't know him.
ReplyDeleteTake some advice ... and stay away from Edwards.
Obama, is a true light weight. He is being polished up by the Dems to take "point". When they finish using him, he will slip from sight.
NO to Edwards--as my senator he would not even acknowledge my communication let alone do anything. AWOL for two years- he is worthless.
ReplyDeleteJust finished Tom Tancredo's book. He is not welcome in the White House because of his strong views on border security, controlling immigration. He recognizes the liberal effect on education so that young Americans lack basic knowledge of our nation's heritage.
With a solid Veep with good foreign affairs insight, I would vote for him.
I've heard Barack Obama speak, he is good, young, with plans for the future of this country. I think he could lead this nation in the correct direction instead of the same old republican/democratic rhedoric.
ReplyDeletewho would u like to see run if noboday is gonna work?
ReplyDeletePat, Tancredo DOES loo good. But, I believe, as someone else said here, that the two parties would attempt to crush him.
ReplyDeleteIt's a sad state of affairs.
George Allen is a prospect. I just don't have enough info on Allen to come down on his side , though... at least at the moment.
ReplyDeleteNewt is my "sentimental" favorite. But, I liked Newt before he had his hair styled, and lost weight, and became, once again, professorial. The "new Newt" worries me.
Now, I like J.D. Hayworth, from Arizona. I'd like to see him move more toward the front. Hailing from a border state, he would carry a lot of weight, no pun intended, in the border battles yet to come.
Newt is my "sentimental" favorite. But, I liked Newt before he had his hair styled, and lost weight, and became, once again, professorial. The "new Newt" worries me.
ReplyDelete******************
Never trust a "man" who would serve his wife with divorice papers while she is sick and in the hospital.... Just the act of a low-life just like getting a little oral when the wife is out of the room.... If it mattered then it matters now. Besides Newt's manurisms are a little too feminine, just like W. when he gets around Blair or Rove. (giddy like a school girl)