Political Analysis Paralysis ... Alan Caruba

Political Analysis Paralysis

By Alan Caruba

Leading up to the Iowa caucuses and following in the wake of their results, the cable news channels and every other news media engaged in a paroxysm of political analysis, interviewing the candidates incessantly from the early hours of the morning until late at night.

I suspect that for many Americans this excess of analysis causes them to “shut down” and ignore the race, the issues, and the candidates. I suspect, too, the avalanche of political advertisements in Iowa exhausted what enthusiasm might have existed.


Divided by eight votes for first place, Romney and Santorum split the lead with Paul in third. The other candidates will begin to fade from contention. Iowa is a popularity contest, not a real political race for delegates to the GOP convention.


I recall spending a day in 1972 with George McGovern as he made the rounds of party bosses in New Jersey. He would be decisively defeated by Richard Nixon.  Ron Paul has the same base of idealistic youth who think his ideas would work in the real world. The grownups know they wouldn’t. If Paul were the GOP candidate, he would suffer a similar fate as McGovern.



Meanwhile, the cable news analysts found themselves saying the same things over and over again.


An example of this was Sarah Palin whose specialty is repeating the obvious while occasionally venturing an opinion such as her judgment that Michele Bachmann’s time has not come as a candidate. One might well have said the same of her when she was Sen. McCain’s bizarre selection to be on the GOP ticket in 2008. She was not ready for prime time then and is the darling of Fox News now for reasons only Rupert Murdock knows.


In addition to political analysis there were and are the polls which rose and fell on an hourly basis. Some like Rasmussen and Gallup are considered to be the most valid, but a host of others chimed in to leave one wondering whether polls really tell us anything other than those with land lines get called and those with cell phones do not.


I have participated in this all-American guessing game, but mostly to point out that Mitt Romney can get elected while the others cannot. I expressed strong reservations about Newt Gingrich and did my best to ignore Ron Paul.


Being first in the electoral process is Iowa’s quadrennial claim to fame.


In the end it simply does not matter what the outcome in Iowa is. Iowa’s voters represent a negligible amount of Republicans, a thin slice of rural America. Moreover, Iowa has a poor record for picking the next president. Its purpose is to be a battleground where candidates test their message, their organizational strength, their ability to get campaign funding, and whether they can stand up to the horrendous process of running for president.


All that matters in the forthcoming election is the defeat of Barack Obama. I still think Mitt Romney is the man to do it.


Failing Obama’s defeat, the near future of America would be in peril and his initial efforts to destroy the nation with Obamacare, open borders, and the thwarting of access to our vast energy reserves will succeed. The poll numbers hold the key and at this point Obama’s continue to fall even among his base.


Who will be the Republican nominee? He will be selected by the end of January after the voters in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida have their say.


© Alan Caruba, 2012

GOP Pro-Taxers Should Be Challenged in Primaries!

 GOP Pro-Taxers Should Be Challenged in Primaries!

A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

I have that nagging feeling again.  I can’t seem to shake the feeling that our GOP representatives in the Congress, especially the US House of Representatives, are going develop weak knees and cave in to Obama’s demand for an increase in taxes in order to get some sort of deal to give the GOP “cover” when they vote to allow an increase in the nation’s debt ceiling.

GOP Senators lend no stability to my nagging feeling, either, as they seem just as willing as those GOP’ers in the House to try to save their cushy jobs in the world’s most excusive club – the US Congress.

It is time for Americans to flood their inboxes and telephone lines -- and even their fax machines -- with messages insuring them that if they do cave, they will be looking for a position elsewhere come next year’s primaries.

Look.  America does not have a revenue problem.  Heck, the US Treasury has PLENTY of money flooding into its coffers 24-hours a day, seven days a week.  The problem is not that we don’t have enough money, or not enough cash flowing INTO the treasury… we DO!   The problem is with the amount of cash flowing OUT of the treasury – and -- with the speed at which it pours out.  Plus, there is the problem with the less than responsible way (I’m being charitable here!) our government tosses US citizen’s cash around.  Comparing Congress’s manner of spending American’s money to the manner in which a drunken sailor throws his cash around is a gross disservice to the Navy!  It is also slanderous!

Back in November of 2010, we conservatives sent a huge number of new members of Congress to Washington with specific instructions to cut the irresponsible spending of the democrats and especially the Obama administration. It was understood that next election we intended to expel a goodly number of those remaining in order to insure that the citizens of America can, once again, gain some level of control over the way in which our wishes, wants, and desires are addressed by the national legislature. We were anticipating just such Congress-made crises as the debt ceiling crisis we find ourselves in today. 

We HOPE those newly elected Representatives remember WHY we sent them there.  If they, somehow, manage to forget or, allow themselves to be swayed by the so-called moderates or middle-of-the-road, go-along-to-get-along, republicans in Congress then, they, too, will be purchasing a one-way plane ticket back home.  See, we MEANT it when we told them: “No More Taxes” and “Cut Government Spending!”  (Of course, we also instructed them to repeal ObamaCare!)

I find it deeply troubling that a number of them seem to have forgotten their explicit instructions, from us, to stand fast against raising taxes.  There is already enough money.  Once again the problem is:  the irresponsible way our government is spending our tax dollars and driving America into poverty.

The Obama Administration has a “champagne taste” and America has a “beer pocketbook!”  They need some realistic “adult” supervision from the conservatives in the Congress.

There is also the fact that Obama publicly proclaims he wants a “Big Deal” on the debt limit.  I’ll BET he does!  Look at the dates on his proffered deal.  Notice that if it is passed, it would insure that Obama would not have the embarrassment of being forced to deal with the same issue again in an election year – which would remind Americans how inept he and his administration actually is when it comes to handling the finances of the United States.  His ineptitude is not isolated to JUST finances… it extends to practically every aspect of governance.  But having the fact that Obama has spent the US into near bankruptcy splashed all over the 24-hour news channels and forcing his “Ministry of Propaganda,” the mainstream media, to print and broadcast the TRUTH, just before an election, would certainly harm his chances of reelection. 

A short term “fix” for the debt ceiling, as distasteful as that is, would have at least one attribute to recommend it.  It would/will keep the problem alive and in the news cycles all the way up to Election Day next year.  It is beginning to look as if that is exactly where we are headed.

Conservatives need to make it clear to our congresspersons and senators that we do not view service to the country, as a senator or congressperson, a career.  We view it as a brief period of service to their respective constituents lasting one to two terms in both houses of the Congress.  After two terms in office service to constituents seems to be forgotten and it becomes service to THEMSELVES, first, above all else.

Career politicians created the mess America finds herself in today.  We need a congress of citizens who take a few years off to serve their country in Washington -- and then return to their real jobs at home. If it takes a constitutional amendment to get this important change in our government -- then so be it.

In the meantime, we conservatives need to prepare, now, to challenge every republican and democrat who caves and votes to support new taxes on the American people in the coming primary next year -- and in future primaries -- and keep it up until we get a government of which the American people can be proud.

J. D. Longstreet